feat: dashboard forecasts releases, tells what changed and weighs the load

The insights reading grows (GraphQL insights(since:), REST ?since=, MCP):
- planned releases with a likely (p50) and safe (p85) finish date from a
  Monte Carlo over the last six weeks of finished work, one after another,
  and a verdict against their target;
- with `since` (the viewer's last visit, kept in the browser): tickets
  created, finished and sent back from QA, and their mentions;
- each person's open points against what they closed per sprint lately;
- open tickets without estimate, area or assignee, or untouched for 90
  days, each count opening the list filtered (new noEstimate, noArea and
  updatedBefore filters).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

libs/api/tracker/application/src/lib/analytics/insights.spec.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 import {
   defaultProjectSettings,
+  ReleaseReadModel,
+  ReleaseStatus,
   IssueLinkType,
   IssueReadModel,
   IssueTimelineEntry,
@@ -7,7 +9,13 @@ import {
   SprintStatus,
   StatusCategory as C,
 } from '@task-stream/api/tracker/domain';
-import { computeInsights, STUCK_DAYS } from './insights';
+import {
+  computeInsights,
+  InsightsInput,
+  simulateDays,
+  STALE_DAYS,
+  STUCK_DAYS,
+} from './insights';
 
 const NOW = new Date('2026-10-15T12:00:00Z');
 const bob = { id: 'bob', name: 'Bob' };
@@ -68,6 +76,24 @@ const sprint: SprintReadModel = {
 };
 const inSprint = { sprint: { id: 's', name: 'Sprint 7' } };
 
+const BASE: Omit<InsightsInput, 'issues' | 'timeline'> = {
+  settings: defaultProjectSettings(),
+  activeSprint: null,
+  sprints: [],
+  releases: [],
+  members: [],
+  since: null,
+  mentions: 0,
+  now: NOW,
+};
+const release = (id: string, targetDate: string | null): ReleaseReadModel =>
+  ({
+    id,
+    name: id,
+    targetDate,
+    status: ReleaseStatus.PLANNED,
+  }) as ReleaseReadModel;
+
 describe('computeInsights', () => {
   it('names what is late, due soon, blocked and stuck', () => {
     const issues = [
@@ -95,9 +121,8 @@ describe('computeInsights', () => {
     const { risks, aging } = computeInsights({
       issues,
       timeline,
+      ...BASE,
       settings: defaultProjectSettings(),
-      activeSprint: null,
-      now: NOW,
     });
     expect(risks.overdue.map((i) => [i.key, i.days])).toEqual([['LATE', 5]]);
     expect(risks.dueSoon.map((i) => [i.key, i.days])).toEqual([['SOON', 5]]);
@@ -121,9 +146,9 @@ describe('computeInsights', () => {
     const { sprint: pulse } = computeInsights({
       issues,
       timeline: [],
+      ...BASE,
       settings: defaultProjectSettings(),
       activeSprint: sprint,
-      now: NOW,
     });
     expect(pulse).toMatchObject({
       totalDays: 14,
@@ -155,9 +180,8 @@ describe('computeInsights', () => {
     const rows = computeInsights({
       issues,
       timeline,
+      ...BASE,
       settings,
-      activeSprint: null,
-      now: NOW,
     }).bottlenecks;
     expect(rows.map((r) => r.status)).toEqual([
       'IN_PROGRESS',
@@ -174,4 +198,108 @@ describe('computeInsights', () => {
       overLimit: true,
     });
   });
+
+  it('forecasts planned releases at the pace of the last weeks', () => {
+    // Two tickets finished a day, every day of the last six weeks.
+    expect(simulateDays(10, [2, 2, 2])).toEqual({ likely: 5, safe: 5 });
+    expect(simulateDays(3, [0, 0])).toBeNull();
+    expect(simulateDays(0, [])).toEqual({ likely: 0, safe: 0 });
+
+    const done = Array.from({ length: 12 }, (_, n) => `D${n}`);
+    const issues = [
+      ...done.map((id) => issue(id, 'DONE', C.DONE)),
+      ...['A1', 'A2', 'A3'].map((id) =>
+        issue(id, 'TODO', C.TODO, { release: { id: 'a', name: 'a' } }),
+      ),
+      ...['B1', 'B2', 'B3'].map((id) =>
+        issue(id, 'TODO', C.TODO, { release: { id: 'b', name: 'b' } }),
+      ),
+    ];
+    // One finished every 3.5 days or so: 12 in the last 42 days.
+    const timeline = done.map((id, n) =>
+      step(
+        id,
+        new Date(NOW.getTime() - (n * 3 + 1) * 86_400_000).toISOString(),
+        'DONE',
+        C.DONE,
+      ),
+    );
+    const { releases } = computeInsights({
+      ...BASE,
+      issues,
+      timeline,
+      releases: [release('b', '2026-10-20'), release('a', '2026-12-31')],
+    });
+    // Nearer target first; the later one waits for it.
+    expect(releases.map((r) => [r.releaseId, r.verdict])).toEqual([
+      ['b', 'LATE'],
+      ['a', 'ON_TRACK'],
+    ]);
+    expect(releases[1].likelyDate! > releases[0].likelyDate!).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('tells what changed since a moment, and who carries what', () => {
+    const ana = { id: 'ana', name: 'Ana' };
+    const issues = [
+      issue('NEW', 'TODO', C.TODO, {
+        createdAt: '2026-10-15T08:00:00Z',
+        assignee: ana,
+        storyPoints: 8,
+      }),
+      issue('CLOSED', 'DONE', C.DONE, {
+        sprint: { id: 'old', name: 'Old' },
+        storyPoints: 5,
+      }),
+      issue('BACK', 'QA_FAILED', C.IN_PROGRESS, { storyPoints: 2 }),
+      issue('STALE', 'TODO', C.TODO, {
+        assignee: null,
+        area: 'FRONTEND',
+        updatedAt: '2026-01-01T00:00:00Z',
+      }),
+    ];
+    const timeline = [
+      step('CLOSED', '2026-10-10T09:00:00Z', 'IN_QA', C.QA),
+      step('CLOSED', '2026-10-15T09:00:00Z', 'DONE', C.DONE),
+      step('BACK', '2026-10-10T09:00:00Z', 'IN_QA', C.QA),
+      step('BACK', '2026-10-15T10:00:00Z', 'QA_FAILED', C.IN_PROGRESS),
+    ];
+    const reading = computeInsights({
+      ...BASE,
+      issues,
+      timeline,
+      since: new Date('2026-10-15T07:00:00Z'),
+      mentions: 2,
+      members: [{ user: ana, role: 'MEMBER' as never }],
+      sprints: [
+        { id: 'old', closedAt: '2026-10-11T00:00:00Z' } as SprintReadModel,
+      ],
+    });
+    expect(reading.changes).toMatchObject({
+      createdCount: 1,
+      finishedCount: 1,
+      returnedCount: 1,
+      mentions: 2,
+    });
+    expect(reading.changes?.returned[0].key).toBe('BACK');
+    // Bob closed 5 points in the one closed sprint and holds 2 open.
+    expect(
+      reading.team.map((t) => [
+        t.user.id,
+        t.openPoints,
+        t.pointsPerSprint,
+        t.overloaded,
+      ]),
+    ).toEqual([
+      ['ana', 8, 0, false],
+      ['bob', 2, 5, false],
+    ]);
+    expect(reading.backlog).toEqual({
+      open: 3,
+      unestimated: 1,
+      noArea: 2,
+      unassigned: 1,
+      stale: 1,
+      staleDays: STALE_DAYS,
+    });
+  });
 });

libs/api/tracker/application/src/lib/analytics/insights.ts

@@ -1,14 +1,22 @@
 import {
+  BacklogHealthReadModel,
+  ChangesSinceReadModel,
   InsightIssueReadModel,
   IssueLinkType,
   IssueReadModel,
   IssueTimelineEntry,
   ProjectInsightsReadModel,
+  ProjectMemberReadModel,
   ProjectSettings,
+  ReleaseForecastReadModel,
+  ReleaseReadModel,
+  ReleaseStatus,
   SprintPulseReadModel,
   SprintReadModel,
   StatusCategory,
   StatusTimeReadModel,
+  TeamLoadReadModel,
+  UserRefReadModel,
 } from '@task-stream/api/tracker/domain';
 import { computeProjectAnalytics, Step, stepsByIssue } from './analytics';
 
@@ -24,6 +32,10 @@ const DAY = 86_400_000;
 export const STUCK_DAYS = 7;
 /** How many tickets each list names. */
 const LIST = 8;
+/** Days not updated that make an open ticket «stale». */
+export const STALE_DAYS = 90;
+/** Days of finished work the forecasts draw their pace from. */
+export const PACE_DAYS = 42;
 const FLOW = [StatusCategory.IN_PROGRESS, StatusCategory.QA];
 const CLOSED = [StatusCategory.DONE, StatusCategory.CANCELLED];
 
@@ -32,6 +44,14 @@ export interface InsightsInput {
   timeline: IssueTimelineEntry[];
   settings: ProjectSettings;
   activeSprint: SprintReadModel | null;
+  /** Every sprint of the project (closed ones give each person's pace). */
+  sprints: SprintReadModel[];
+  releases: ReleaseReadModel[];
+  members: ProjectMemberReadModel[];
+  /** The viewer's last visit, to tell what changed since. */
+  since: Date | null;
+  /** Times the viewer was mentioned in the project since then. */
+  mentions: number;
   now: Date;
 }
 
@@ -137,6 +157,245 @@ export function computeInsights(
       thresholdDays: analytics.cycleTime.p85Days,
     },
     bottlenecks: bottlenecks(input.settings, open, steps, now),
+    releases: forecasts(input.releases, live, steps, now),
+    changes: input.since
+      ? changesSince(input.since.getTime(), live, steps, line, input.mentions)
+      : null,
+    team: teamLoad(
+      input.members,
+      open,
+      live,
+      input.sprints,
+      new Set(blocked.map((b) => b.id)),
+    ),
+    backlog: backlogHealth(open, now),
+  };
+}
+
+/** Tickets that reached a DONE status per day, over the last PACE_DAYS days. */
+function dailyThroughput(steps: Map<string, Step[]>, now: number): number[] {
+  const today = utcDay(now);
+  const counts = new Array<number>(PACE_DAYS).fill(0);
+  for (const list of steps.values())
+    list.forEach((step, i) => {
+      const before = list[i - 1];
+      if (step.category !== StatusCategory.DONE) return;
+      if (before && before.category === StatusCategory.DONE) return;
+      const ago = Math.floor((today - utcDay(step.at)) / DAY);
+      if (ago >= 0 && ago < PACE_DAYS) counts[ago]++;
+    });
+  return counts;
+}
+
+/** Small seeded generator: the same data always gives the same forecast. */
+function random(seed: number): () => number {
+  let a = seed >>> 0;
+  return () => {
+    a = (a + 0x6d2b79f5) >>> 0;
+    let t = a;
+    t = Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 15), t | 1);
+    t ^= t + Math.imul(t ^ (t >>> 7), t | 61);
+    return ((t ^ (t >>> 14)) >>> 0) / 4294967296;
+  };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Days to finish `remaining` tickets, drawing each day's throughput from
+ * the days measured (Monte Carlo): the 50th and 85th percentiles.
+ */
+export function simulateDays(
+  remaining: number,
+  samples: number[],
+  runs = 500,
+): { likely: number; safe: number } | null {
+  if (remaining <= 0) return { likely: 0, safe: 0 };
+  if (!samples.some((n) => n > 0)) return null;
+  const next = random(remaining * 7919 + samples.length);
+  const results: number[] = [];
+  for (let run = 0; run < runs; run++) {
+    let done = 0;
+    let days = 0;
+    while (done < remaining && days < 3 * 365) {
+      done += samples[Math.floor(next() * samples.length)];
+      days++;
+    }
+    results.push(days);
+  }
+  results.sort((a, b) => a - b);
+  return {
+    likely: results[Math.floor(0.5 * runs)],
+    safe: results[Math.ceil(0.85 * runs) - 1],
+  };
+}
+
+/**
+ * Planned releases in target-date order. The team finishes them one after
+ * another, so each one's forecast counts what is left in the earlier ones.
+ */
+function forecasts(
+  releases: ReleaseReadModel[],
+  issues: IssueReadModel[],
+  steps: Map<string, Step[]>,
+  now: number,
+): ReleaseForecastReadModel[] {
+  const pace = dailyThroughput(steps, now);
+  const today = utcDay(now);
+  const dayAfter = (days: number) =>
+    new Date(today + days * DAY).toISOString().slice(0, 10);
+  let ahead = 0;
+  return releases
+    .filter((r) => r.status === ReleaseStatus.PLANNED)
+    .sort(
+      (a, b) =>
+        (a.targetDate ?? '9999').localeCompare(b.targetDate ?? '9999') ||
+        a.name.localeCompare(b.name),
+    )
+    .map((release) => {
+      const own = issues.filter(
+        (i) =>
+          i.release?.id === release.id &&
+          i.statusCategory !== StatusCategory.CANCELLED,
+      );
+      const finished = own.filter(
+        (i) => i.statusCategory === StatusCategory.DONE,
+      ).length;
+      const left = own.length - finished;
+      ahead += left;
+      const days = left > 0 ? simulateDays(ahead, pace) : null;
+      const likelyDate = days ? dayAfter(days.likely) : null;
+      const safeDate = days ? dayAfter(days.safe) : null;
+      const verdict: ReleaseForecastReadModel['verdict'] =
+        left === 0
+          ? 'DONE'
+          : !days
+            ? 'UNKNOWN'
+            : !release.targetDate
+              ? 'NO_DATE'
+              : (safeDate as string) <= release.targetDate
+                ? 'ON_TRACK'
+                : (likelyDate as string) <= release.targetDate
+                  ? 'AT_RISK'
+                  : 'LATE';
+      return {
+        releaseId: release.id,
+        name: release.name,
+        targetDate: release.targetDate,
+        total: own.length,
+        finished,
+        likelyDate,
+        safeDate,
+        verdict,
+      };
+    });
+}
+
+/** Created, finished and sent back from QA after `since`. */
+function changesSince(
+  since: number,
+  issues: IssueReadModel[],
+  steps: Map<string, Step[]>,
+  line: (issue: IssueReadModel, days: number) => InsightIssueReadModel,
+  mentions: number,
+): ChangesSinceReadModel {
+  const created = issues
+    .filter((i) => Date.parse(i.createdAt) > since)
+    .sort((a, b) => b.createdAt.localeCompare(a.createdAt));
+  const finished: IssueReadModel[] = [];
+  const returned: IssueReadModel[] = [];
+  for (const issue of issues) {
+    const list = steps.get(issue.id) ?? [];
+    const recent = list.filter((s, i) => s.at > since && i > 0);
+    if (
+      issue.statusCategory === StatusCategory.DONE &&
+      recent.some((s) => s.category === StatusCategory.DONE)
+    )
+      finished.push(issue);
+    if (
+      list.some(
+        (s, i) =>
+          s.at > since &&
+          i > 0 &&
+          list[i - 1].category === StatusCategory.QA &&
+          !CLOSED.includes(s.category) &&
+          s.category !== StatusCategory.QA,
+      )
+    )
+      returned.push(issue);
+  }
+  return {
+    since: new Date(since).toISOString(),
+    created: created.slice(0, LIST).map((i) => line(i, 0)),
+    createdCount: created.length,
+    finished: finished.slice(0, LIST).map((i) => line(i, 0)),
+    finishedCount: finished.length,
+    returned: returned.slice(0, LIST).map((i) => line(i, 0)),
+    returnedCount: returned.length,
+    mentions,
+  };
+}
+
+const pointsOf = (list: IssueReadModel[]) =>
+  list.reduce((sum, i) => sum + (i.storyPoints ?? 0), 0);
+
+/** Open work per person against the points they closed per sprint lately. */
+function teamLoad(
+  members: ProjectMemberReadModel[],
+  open: IssueReadModel[],
+  issues: IssueReadModel[],
+  sprints: SprintReadModel[],
+  blockedIds: Set<string>,
+): TeamLoadReadModel[] {
+  const people = new Map<string, UserRefReadModel>();
+  for (const m of members) people.set(m.user.id, m.user);
+  for (const i of open) if (i.assignee) people.set(i.assignee.id, i.assignee);
+  const lastClosed = sprints
+    .filter((s) => s.closedAt)
+    .sort((a, b) => (b.closedAt as string).localeCompare(a.closedAt as string))
+    .slice(0, 3)
+    .map((s) => s.id);
+  return [...people.values()]
+    .map((user) => {
+      const mine = open.filter((i) => i.assignee?.id === user.id);
+      const closed = issues.filter(
+        (i) =>
+          i.assignee?.id === user.id &&
+          i.statusCategory === StatusCategory.DONE &&
+          !!i.sprint &&
+          lastClosed.includes(i.sprint.id),
+      );
+      const perSprint = lastClosed.length
+        ? round1(pointsOf(closed) / lastClosed.length)
+        : null;
+      const openPoints = pointsOf(mine);
+      return {
+        user,
+        openTickets: mine.length,
+        openPoints,
+        blocked: mine.filter((i) => blockedIds.has(i.id)).length,
+        pointsPerSprint: perSprint,
+        overloaded: !!perSprint && openPoints > perSprint,
+      };
+    })
+    .sort(
+      (a, b) =>
+        b.openPoints - a.openPoints ||
+        b.openTickets - a.openTickets ||
+        a.user.name.localeCompare(b.user.name, 'es'),
+    );
+}
+
+function backlogHealth(
+  open: IssueReadModel[],
+  now: number,
+): BacklogHealthReadModel {
+  const staleBefore = now - STALE_DAYS * DAY;
+  return {
+    open: open.length,
+    unestimated: open.filter((i) => i.storyPoints === null).length,
+    noArea: open.filter((i) => !i.area).length,
+    unassigned: open.filter((i) => !i.assignee).length,
+    stale: open.filter((i) => Date.parse(i.updatedAt) < staleBefore).length,
+    staleDays: STALE_DAYS,
   };
 }
 

libs/api/tracker/application/src/lib/ports/find-issues.repository.ts

@@ -33,6 +33,12 @@ export interface IssueFilter {
   dueTo?: string;
   /** Only tickets in no sprint (wins over `sprintId`). */
   noSprint?: boolean;
+  /** Only tickets nobody estimated. */
+  noEstimate?: boolean;
+  /** Only tickets with no area. */
+  noArea?: boolean;
+  /** Only tickets not updated since this instant (ISO). */
+  updatedBefore?: string;
   /** Custom field id → the value it must hold. */
   customFields?: Record<string, string>;
   /** Only the ones the viewer follows (the query handler turns it into `watcherId`). */

libs/api/tracker/application/src/lib/projects.service.ts

@@ -323,13 +323,14 @@ export class ProjectsService {
   }
 
   /** Statistics over the last `days` days (created vs resolved, flow, times, QA). */
-  /** Sprint under way, risks, aging and bottlenecks, for the dashboard. */
+  /** The dashboard's reading; with `since`, what changed after it too. */
   insights(
     viewerId: string | null,
     projectId: string,
+    since: Date | null = null,
   ): Promise<ProjectInsightsReadModel> {
     return this.queryBus.execute(
-      new GetProjectInsightsQuery(viewerId, projectId),
+      new GetProjectInsightsQuery(viewerId, projectId, since),
     );
   }
 

libs/api/tracker/application/src/lib/queries/get-project-insights.query-handler.ts

@@ -1,11 +1,15 @@
 import { IQueryHandler, QueryHandler } from '@nestjs/cqrs';
 import {
   DEFAULT_PROJECT_SETTINGS,
+  NotificationKind,
   ProjectInsightsReadModel,
+  SprintStatus,
 } from '@task-stream/api/tracker/domain';
 import { computeInsights } from '../analytics/insights';
 import { FindIssuesRepository } from '../ports/find-issues.repository';
 import { FindProjectsRepository } from '../ports/find-projects.repository';
+import { FindReleasesRepository } from '../ports/find-releases.repository';
+import { NotificationsRepository } from '../ports/notifications.repository';
 import { FindSprintsRepository } from '../ports/find-sprints.repository';
 import { FindTimelineRepository } from '../ports/find-timeline.repository';
 import { GetProjectInsightsQuery } from './get-project-insights.query';
@@ -21,24 +25,51 @@ export class GetProjectInsightsQueryHandler
     private readonly findIssues: FindIssuesRepository,
     private readonly findTimeline: FindTimelineRepository,
     private readonly findSprints: FindSprintsRepository,
+    private readonly findReleases: FindReleasesRepository,
+    private readonly notifications: NotificationsRepository,
   ) {}
 
   async execute(
     query: GetProjectInsightsQuery,
   ): Promise<ProjectInsightsReadModel> {
     await this.access.assertCanView(query.projectId, query.viewerId);
-    const [project, issues, timeline, activeSprint] = await Promise.all([
-      this.findProjects.findById(query.projectId),
-      this.findIssues.findByProject(query.projectId),
-      this.findTimeline.findByProject(query.projectId),
-      this.findSprints.findActive(query.projectId),
-    ]);
+    const [project, issues, timeline, sprints, releases, mentions] =
+      await Promise.all([
+        this.findProjects.findById(query.projectId),
+        this.findIssues.findByProject(query.projectId),
+        this.findTimeline.findByProject(query.projectId),
+        this.findSprints.findByProject(query.projectId),
+        this.findReleases.findByProject(query.projectId),
+        this.mentionsSince(query),
+      ]);
     return computeInsights({
       issues,
       timeline,
       settings: project?.settings ?? DEFAULT_PROJECT_SETTINGS,
-      activeSprint,
+      activeSprint:
+        sprints.find((s) => s.status === SprintStatus.ACTIVE) ?? null,
+      sprints,
+      releases,
+      members: project?.members ?? [],
+      since: query.since,
+      mentions,
       now: new Date(),
     });
   }
+
+  /** The viewer's mentions in this project after `since` (latest 200). */
+  private async mentionsSince(query: GetProjectInsightsQuery): Promise<number> {
+    if (!query.since || !query.viewerId) return 0;
+    const since = query.since.toISOString();
+    const latest = await this.notifications.findForUser(query.viewerId, {
+      unreadOnly: false,
+      limit: 200,
+    });
+    return latest.filter(
+      (n) =>
+        n.projectId === query.projectId &&
+        n.kind === NotificationKind.MENTIONED &&
+        n.createdAt > since,
+    ).length;
+  }
 }

libs/api/tracker/application/src/lib/queries/get-project-insights.query.ts

@@ -1,12 +1,17 @@
 import { Query } from '@nestjs/cqrs';
 import { ProjectInsightsReadModel } from '@task-stream/api/tracker/domain';
 
-/** The dashboard's reading of a project: sprint, risks, aging, bottlenecks. */
+/**
+ * The dashboard's reading of a project: sprint, risks, aging, bottlenecks,
+ * release forecasts, team load, backlog health and, with `since`, what
+ * changed after it.
+ */
 export class GetProjectInsightsQuery extends Query<ProjectInsightsReadModel> {
   constructor(
     /** Null: anonymous (public projects only). */
     public readonly viewerId: string | null,
     public readonly projectId: string,
+    public readonly since: Date | null = null,
   ) {
     super();
   }