feat: dashboard forecasts releases, tells what changed and weighs the load

The insights reading grows (GraphQL insights(since:), REST ?since=, MCP):
- planned releases with a likely (p50) and safe (p85) finish date from a
  Monte Carlo over the last six weeks of finished work, one after another,
  and a verdict against their target;
- with `since` (the viewer's last visit, kept in the browser): tickets
  created, finished and sent back from QA, and their mentions;
- each person's open points against what they closed per sprint lately;
- open tickets without estimate, area or assignee, or untouched for 90
  days, each count opening the list filtered (new noEstimate, noArea and
  updatedBefore filters).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

libs/api/tracker/application/src/lib/analytics/insights.spec.ts

@@ -1,5 +1,7 @@
 import {
   defaultProjectSettings,
+  ReleaseReadModel,
+  ReleaseStatus,
   IssueLinkType,
   IssueReadModel,
   IssueTimelineEntry,
@@ -7,7 +9,13 @@ import {
   SprintStatus,
   StatusCategory as C,
 } from '@task-stream/api/tracker/domain';
-import { computeInsights, STUCK_DAYS } from './insights';
+import {
+  computeInsights,
+  InsightsInput,
+  simulateDays,
+  STALE_DAYS,
+  STUCK_DAYS,
+} from './insights';
 
 const NOW = new Date('2026-10-15T12:00:00Z');
 const bob = { id: 'bob', name: 'Bob' };
@@ -68,6 +76,24 @@ const sprint: SprintReadModel = {
 };
 const inSprint = { sprint: { id: 's', name: 'Sprint 7' } };
 
+const BASE: Omit<InsightsInput, 'issues' | 'timeline'> = {
+  settings: defaultProjectSettings(),
+  activeSprint: null,
+  sprints: [],
+  releases: [],
+  members: [],
+  since: null,
+  mentions: 0,
+  now: NOW,
+};
+const release = (id: string, targetDate: string | null): ReleaseReadModel =>
+  ({
+    id,
+    name: id,
+    targetDate,
+    status: ReleaseStatus.PLANNED,
+  }) as ReleaseReadModel;
+
 describe('computeInsights', () => {
   it('names what is late, due soon, blocked and stuck', () => {
     const issues = [
@@ -95,9 +121,8 @@ describe('computeInsights', () => {
     const { risks, aging } = computeInsights({
       issues,
       timeline,
+      ...BASE,
       settings: defaultProjectSettings(),
-      activeSprint: null,
-      now: NOW,
     });
     expect(risks.overdue.map((i) => [i.key, i.days])).toEqual([['LATE', 5]]);
     expect(risks.dueSoon.map((i) => [i.key, i.days])).toEqual([['SOON', 5]]);
@@ -121,9 +146,9 @@ describe('computeInsights', () => {
     const { sprint: pulse } = computeInsights({
       issues,
       timeline: [],
+      ...BASE,
       settings: defaultProjectSettings(),
       activeSprint: sprint,
-      now: NOW,
     });
     expect(pulse).toMatchObject({
       totalDays: 14,
@@ -155,9 +180,8 @@ describe('computeInsights', () => {
     const rows = computeInsights({
       issues,
       timeline,
+      ...BASE,
       settings,
-      activeSprint: null,
-      now: NOW,
     }).bottlenecks;
     expect(rows.map((r) => r.status)).toEqual([
       'IN_PROGRESS',
@@ -174,4 +198,108 @@ describe('computeInsights', () => {
       overLimit: true,
     });
   });
+
+  it('forecasts planned releases at the pace of the last weeks', () => {
+    // Two tickets finished a day, every day of the last six weeks.
+    expect(simulateDays(10, [2, 2, 2])).toEqual({ likely: 5, safe: 5 });
+    expect(simulateDays(3, [0, 0])).toBeNull();
+    expect(simulateDays(0, [])).toEqual({ likely: 0, safe: 0 });
+
+    const done = Array.from({ length: 12 }, (_, n) => `D${n}`);
+    const issues = [
+      ...done.map((id) => issue(id, 'DONE', C.DONE)),
+      ...['A1', 'A2', 'A3'].map((id) =>
+        issue(id, 'TODO', C.TODO, { release: { id: 'a', name: 'a' } }),
+      ),
+      ...['B1', 'B2', 'B3'].map((id) =>
+        issue(id, 'TODO', C.TODO, { release: { id: 'b', name: 'b' } }),
+      ),
+    ];
+    // One finished every 3.5 days or so: 12 in the last 42 days.
+    const timeline = done.map((id, n) =>
+      step(
+        id,
+        new Date(NOW.getTime() - (n * 3 + 1) * 86_400_000).toISOString(),
+        'DONE',
+        C.DONE,
+      ),
+    );
+    const { releases } = computeInsights({
+      ...BASE,
+      issues,
+      timeline,
+      releases: [release('b', '2026-10-20'), release('a', '2026-12-31')],
+    });
+    // Nearer target first; the later one waits for it.
+    expect(releases.map((r) => [r.releaseId, r.verdict])).toEqual([
+      ['b', 'LATE'],
+      ['a', 'ON_TRACK'],
+    ]);
+    expect(releases[1].likelyDate! > releases[0].likelyDate!).toBe(true);
+  });
+
+  it('tells what changed since a moment, and who carries what', () => {
+    const ana = { id: 'ana', name: 'Ana' };
+    const issues = [
+      issue('NEW', 'TODO', C.TODO, {
+        createdAt: '2026-10-15T08:00:00Z',
+        assignee: ana,
+        storyPoints: 8,
+      }),
+      issue('CLOSED', 'DONE', C.DONE, {
+        sprint: { id: 'old', name: 'Old' },
+        storyPoints: 5,
+      }),
+      issue('BACK', 'QA_FAILED', C.IN_PROGRESS, { storyPoints: 2 }),
+      issue('STALE', 'TODO', C.TODO, {
+        assignee: null,
+        area: 'FRONTEND',
+        updatedAt: '2026-01-01T00:00:00Z',
+      }),
+    ];
+    const timeline = [
+      step('CLOSED', '2026-10-10T09:00:00Z', 'IN_QA', C.QA),
+      step('CLOSED', '2026-10-15T09:00:00Z', 'DONE', C.DONE),
+      step('BACK', '2026-10-10T09:00:00Z', 'IN_QA', C.QA),
+      step('BACK', '2026-10-15T10:00:00Z', 'QA_FAILED', C.IN_PROGRESS),
+    ];
+    const reading = computeInsights({
+      ...BASE,
+      issues,
+      timeline,
+      since: new Date('2026-10-15T07:00:00Z'),
+      mentions: 2,
+      members: [{ user: ana, role: 'MEMBER' as never }],
+      sprints: [
+        { id: 'old', closedAt: '2026-10-11T00:00:00Z' } as SprintReadModel,
+      ],
+    });
+    expect(reading.changes).toMatchObject({
+      createdCount: 1,
+      finishedCount: 1,
+      returnedCount: 1,
+      mentions: 2,
+    });
+    expect(reading.changes?.returned[0].key).toBe('BACK');
+    // Bob closed 5 points in the one closed sprint and holds 2 open.
+    expect(
+      reading.team.map((t) => [
+        t.user.id,
+        t.openPoints,
+        t.pointsPerSprint,
+        t.overloaded,
+      ]),
+    ).toEqual([
+      ['ana', 8, 0, false],
+      ['bob', 2, 5, false],
+    ]);
+    expect(reading.backlog).toEqual({
+      open: 3,
+      unestimated: 1,
+      noArea: 2,
+      unassigned: 1,
+      stale: 1,
+      staleDays: STALE_DAYS,
+    });
+  });
 });